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SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Two of the most discussed words in the English Dictionary.  

Oil is high because the demand for this energy resource world wide has rose to unseen proportions.  Third world companies are demanding this resource as they enter the modern world economies.  Meanwhile supply remains the same with the unwillingness of source nations to raise their production.  Thus we see the results of price increases. 

SUPPLY

South Lake Tahoe real estate has one of the most limited supplies in our 50 States.  There is no more being produced.  In fact the limited supply of bare land is being reduced in part by the policies set down by TRPA (Tahoe Regional Planning Agency) with a non growth mandate.  A building permit for a South Tahoe home in the City has a waiting period close to nine years.

DEMAND

South Lake Tahoe real estate has seen an increase in demand world wide. A fact supported by the influx of people from other countries, Great Britain to name one.  This has occurred because of the Internet and in part the development of the Marriott Grand Residence.  Marriot has put our town on the map, worldwide through increased awareness that we are in fact an International Resort Destination.  Think of our amenities, to name a few; ski resorts, gaming, a golfing paradise, water sports, mountains and yes high desert beauty.  Did I mention the most beautiful fresh water Alpine snow feed Lake in the world. Try and find this combination anywhere else in the world.   For my money I would rather own and hold South Lake Tahoe Real Estate then buy oil stocks.

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An opinion from personal experience  for either Luxury Tahoe Real Estate or South Tahoe Homes.

They say History repeats itself.  I have lived long enough to see that to be true.  I have been selling and buying real estate since 1972 long enough to live through three economic Bell Curves.  Usually it is a ten year cycle.  The Bell curve peaked in 1991 and took a five year slide bottoming in the summer in 1996.  1997 was a flat year with a slow climb out through the year 2000.  From that point 2001 on WOW!  We enjoyed double digit appreciation in our real estate holdings for five straight years peaking in September 2005.  We are into our third down year as of this date.  If you follow History then it should continue and bottom in 2010. 

Why buy South Lake Tahoe Real Estate now?  Inventory is excellent here in South Tahoe homes, and the motivation of the seller is high.  You might not be buying at the bottom of the market but unless you buy for cash I believe you are buying at the lowest mortgage rates you will see for along time.  Remember it is a combination  of buying right with lowest rates for affordability.  What is different now is the price of oil.  If you follow the markets like I do daily, you would know that we had a .6% consumer price index increase (Inflation) last month.  I believe this will continue with the year end coming in around 10%.  That is like you taking a 10 per cent pay cut.  Investment in real estate long term is a great hedge against inflation.  Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke is charged with the responsible to control inflation.  His only effective weapon is to raise the prime lending rate.  Do the math.  I believe the affordability index in home buying is now, this summer not 2010 when 30 year fixed rates could very well be pushing 9%.

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If you have wondered when the South Lake Tahoe housing market was going to hit the bottom I thought I would share a synopsis of a recent wall street journal article I read. I found the article to have a lot of validity. Statistics have shown the last four major housing slumps were in 1975, 1980, 1982, 1991 and now again in ’08. In each of these slumps and according to statistics each time the housing starts in the U.S. have dipped below the 1 million mark it has signified the bottom of the market. This stat holds true going back 50 years. Subsequently over the same time frame the top of the market has peaked at 2.5 million housing starts. Guess what recently just happened? Yes, housing starts dropped below that magical 1 million figure indicating now is the time to bottom feed. There is a consensus on this statistical theory by many of the talking heads I watch on TV. The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market seems to be right on with this trend as activity is starting to increase and we are seeing fewer price deductions.

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What is it Like Living in South Lake Tahoe?

Having lived in the San Francisco Bay Area for most of my life I hesitated several times before picking up my roots and moving to South Lake Tahoe. I had purchased a second home in Tahoe in 1991 so I knew I loved the beauty of the area having spent many a summer days enjoying the mountains but I had never lived in the snow and was scared to death not knowing if I would enjoy the Tahoe winters. The things that crossed my mind were:

*Longer winters in the snow.

* Having my kids change schools and leaving friends.

*What would the community be like?

*Was the youth sports my kids enjoyed available?

*What would I do for a living?

*What would my social life be like?

*Driving in the snow.

*Do we own the right Tahoe Home?

I learned by having a second home in Tahoe and visiting during winter holidays that having a “A” frame house with single pane windows, high ceilings and poor insulation was a good summer home but not a good full time home. Not to mention that it had no garage. I sold the A frame in 1995 and bought a new 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage house in Christmas Valley (South Lake Tahoe). This real estate transaction paved the way for our future move. When the time came to make my new career choice of staying in the Bay Area or making the leap to South Lake Tahoe I knew I had the right Tahoe home.

Now after nine years of Tahoe life I feel I can now answer any questions from people who are contemplating a full time move from an urban environment like the Bay Area to a smaller slower pace environment like Tahoe.  Please do not hesitate to call or email me with any questions you might have about Lake Tahoe Real Estate or life in general in South Lake Tahoe. Oh by the way, I was a home inspector in South Lake Tahoe for four years and inspected over 1500 homes and was owner builder of my current Christmas Valley home so I know most TRPA and building permit questions as well. Chuck Stanley, Realtor, Century 21 Tahoe Paradise chuckfortahoe@sbcglobal.net 530-318-8830

I got a call from a nice lady from Oregon and she is looking at re-locating to South Lake Tahoe and wanted to know where I posted the answers abouit life in South Lake Tahoe so I thought I would clarify the purpose of this posting. Since  most questions and situtations will be different I would really like to hear from you to take the time to answer your individual questions. Laura from Oregon wanted to know about youth soccer and I was able to tell her about our brand new soccer facility in South Lake Tahoe and the popularity of the sport at the Lake, so please feel free to call me or email me with your questions. Chuck Stanley 530-318-8830 chuckfortahoe@sbcglobal.net

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I read a recent article which contained five new rules for home buyers. These rules apply to South Lake Tahoe Home buyers as well.

1). It has been said and it is true: You can’t time the bottom of the market. Resist it is harder than you think. This is the best time to buy in the last two decades. Find the home you are looking for and negotiate.

2) Mortgage rates will go up. Inflation remains a concern and that typically means rates will go up. Plenty of houses on the market in South Lake Tahoe and if you wait barrowing money is going to get more expensive.

3) A new law has allowed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy jumbo conforming loans making less expensive.

4) Don’t buy cheap, buy good schools really doesn’t apply to South Lake Tahoe properties. South Lake Tahoe really doesn’t have bad neighborhoods or clusters of foreclosures and with one high school and middle school the only boarders are for elementary schools and they are all good.

5) Pick the right agent. This basically means with extra incentives being offered by sellers make sure your agent has your best interest in mind and not their commission. The L&S team of Fred Loetscher and Chuck Stanley know this and work with your best interest in mind when buying a home in South Lake Tahoe and Nevada.

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This blog will provide all relevant information related to the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market.

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